Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Eliciting Subjective Probabilities in Internet Surveys.
Individuals' subjective expectations are important in explaining heterogeneity in individual choices, but their elicitation poses some challenges, in particular when one is interested in the subjective probability distribution of an individual. We have developed an innovative visual representation for Internet surveys that has some advantages over previously used formats. In this paper we prese...
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Subjective probabilities are now collected on a number of large household surveys with the objective of providing data to better understand inter-temporal decision making. Comparison of subjective probabilities with actual outcomes shows that the probabilities have considerable predictive power in situations where individuals have considerable private information such as survival and retirement...
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In order to build complex Bayesian models from experts' input, we must elicit many probabilities; to assure continuing expert assistance , the process must be as painless and quick as possible. Previous work on the elic-itation problem has occurred in two areas: online tools and by-hand methods designed to improve accuracy and increase speed. We have merged these two streams in HYPO, the Help w...
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T events are exchangeable for an agent when she is indifferent to permutations of their outcomes. Such events are thus revealed to be equally likely. If they are complementary, the subjective probability associated with each event should be 1/2 (assuming the additivity of the probability measure). This paper reports the results of an experiment that elicits probabilities through exchangeable ev...
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This note shows that if the space of events is sufficiently rich and the subjective probability function of each individual is non-atomic, then there is a σ -algebra of events over which everyone will have the same probability function, and moreover, the range of this common probability is the entire unit interval.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Public Opinion Quarterly
سال: 2008
ISSN: 0033-362X,1537-5331
DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfn062